Summary of USDA Report
December 10, 2013
Carry-out was trimmed 95 million bushels to 1.792 billion, reflecting . . .
- A 5 mbu increase in imports to 30 million—likely from Canada;
- Ethanol grind was raised 50 million to 4.95 bbu—early pace;
- And exports were increased 50 million to 1.45 billion—good sales interest early-on;
- The expected average farm price range narrowed in from $4.10-$4.90 last month, to $4.05-$4.75 with the $4.40 mid-point equal to a near $2.50 drop from the 12/13 average.
- Carry-out 20 lower to 150;
- Imports boosted by 10 to 25 million (36 LY);
- Crush raised by 5 million to 1.69 billion—meal exports, especially the EU and SE Asia;
- Exports increased 25 million to 1.475 billion—record commitments;
- Producer prices raised $.45 per bushel at both ends to $11.50-$13.50.
- All wheat supply of 3.008Bbu is up 10 million vs. November reflecting a 10mbu boost in imports (5 million each for HRS and SRW);
- There were no changes to aggregate domestic use or exports, although there were some minor adjustments by class (see below);
- Net is an increase of 10mbu in all wheat carryout to 575mbu vs. avg. trade guess of 547;
- Avg. farm price pegged at $6.65-$7.15 vs. $6.70-$7.30 in November.
Updated class breakdown as follows:
Hard Red Winter Wheat
- No change in supply at 1.097Bbu;
- Domestic use and exports were unchanged at 488mbu and 415, respectively; o Net is end stocks for 13/14 projected at 194mbu, which is unch vs. November and dn vs. 343 LY Stocks-to-use ratio: 21.4% (unch vs. Sept), 34.6% LY.
Soft Red Winter Wheat
- Total supply up 5mbu to 714mbu reflecting larger imports from Canada;
- Domestic use is unchanged at 325mbu, but exports up 5 million to 300;
- Net is ending stocks for 13/14 pegged at 89mbu--unch vs. 106 LM and down from 124 last year. Stocks-to-use ratio: 14.2% vs. 14.4% LM and 24.8% LY.
Hard Red Spring Wheat
- Total supply up 5mbu reflecting larger imports from Canada;
- Dom use unch at 308mbu, but exports down 5 million to 210mbu due to increased competition from Canada;
- Net is ending stocks for 13/14 projected at 202mbu vs. 192 LM and 165 last year Stocks-to-use ratio: 39.0% vs. 36.7% LM and 30.9% for 12/13. ♦
- Frank Backx, HDC Forest Location Manager