USDA March 31, 2014

STOCKS, March 1

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Trade guess

7.110 bln

.989 bln

1.034 bln

Year ago Stocks

5.40 bln

.998 bln

1.234 bln

USDA March 31, 2014

7.006

.992

1.055

ACRES, 2014

Trade guess

92.9 mlm

81.4 mln

56 mln

Year Ago

95.4

76.5

56.2

USDA March 31, 2014

91.7

81.5

55.8

 

Corn was the surprise for the third report in a row from USDA. Stocks were over 100 mln bu less than expected, implying very strong feed usage, despite the PED epidemic in hogs. In fact feed use was 330 mln more bu in the quarter than a year ago, and exports are running at more than double a year ago. Nothing cures low prices like low prices, it seems.  Acreage at 91.7 was 1.2 mln less than traders thought, and with the current cold forecasts, may end up even lower.

Traders guessed the soybean numbers very closely. Stocks guess was 989, USDA says 992 mln bu. and 998 mln a year ago.  Acres guess was 81.4, USDA put it at  81.5. New soys dropped, however, as less corn plantings due to weather will likely mean even more soybean acres this spring.

No surprises in wheat either, but mildly bearish stocks at 1.055 bln bu., traders had thought 1.034.

Every cold and wet forecast in the daily NOAA 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts now will support corn more at the expense of soybeans, in our opinion. ♦

- Frank Backx, HDC Forest Location Manager